ISIS and its head Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi have publicly declared that
Libya will be its next home now that ISIS is being driven out Syria and
It was reported recently that a former CIA Station Chief, one
Daniel Hoffman, a distinguished career intelligence officer who served
in the past in Russia, Iraq, and Pakistan, hypothesized ISIS’s
Hoffman specifically makes one
particular point which many have been predicting for months: Essentially
that ISIS needs a new base of operations following its loss of Raqaa
and it has selected two potential sites in Libya.
specifically stated that the Head of ISIS, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi has
decided that ISIS’s future is to be based out of Libya, and that he
himself should physically be there to provide the morale and
psychological support for their dream of a Caliphate.
new political religious country which they wish to name "The Islamic
State" to be made up from amongst the countries they have destroyed and
ISIS moving its base of operations to
Libya would be a game changer for the War on Terror and force a united
Europe to collectively establish a definitive policy for Libya,
something that has not existed before.
As to be
expected, little has appeared in the "fake" mainstream media of the
increased presence of ISIS in Libya particularly in two places, Sirte
The reports that do appear attribute
these recent Libyan skirmishes to elements paid, what can only be
described as bribes, by the Italian Government to local Sabratha
militias allegedly fighting "people smugglers" to stop the flow of
migrants particularly from Zuwara, via Sabratha, to Italy.
An old mafia trick was to break someone's shop window then visit the owner in the morning saying they fix broken windows!
Nevertheless it's a strategy Italy is committed to as immigrants effect them more than any other nearby country.
what the mainstream media fail to write about when describing the
Italian strategy is that it has actually encouraged ISIS presence in
Sabratha and Zawia as they are running short of sources of finance and
what is better than European money?
effect of the Italians bribing militias in Sabratha has been like
spreading honey to attract bees. ISIS fighters want their share. It's
This is part of the reason thousands of
ISIS fighters have recently arrived in Libya these past weeks from Iraq
and Syria, where they have had to flee anyway.
other important reason for ISIS to move to Libya is to try and capture
"the oil crescent" currently controlled by Field Marshall Haftar's
Libyan National Army (the LNA).
Sirte puts them
within striking distance of the oil terminals of the crescent, ISIS have
plans to start launching attacks on Tunisia and later Algeria and
Morocco from Sabratha to further destabilize the rest of that part of
Tunisians nationals make up more than 50 percent of all ISIS fighters.
Tunisian ISIS fighters intend to bring turmoil to their country of
origin as well as to Libya, so they need a base to operate from to do
What is described above is believed to be the new ISIS short and medium term strategy.
Italy and France have very publicly voiced their disagreements with each other over each's tactics in Libya.
reports also have suggested that the Italians appealed to Haftar in the
short term to send Zintani based troops loyal to him to help destroy
ISIS in the Sabratha region and then to move on and take Zawia itself
and help stop the immigrants no doubt offering him financial incentives
Haftar's LNA successfully took both Sabratha and Zawia last week.
political consequence has emerged to these activities producing new
politics for Libyans on the ground in the form of recent rallys and
demonstrations of pro-Gaddafites, who now openly say the solution for
Libya is the son of the late Colonel, Saif al Islam Gaddafi.
So the story continues to evolve from a counter intelligence perspective and a political one within Libya.
seems to have taken its eye off the ball in Libya but with these
events, the US may well encourage the EU rather than the UN to come up
with a plan, something after six years of trying, the UN has yet to do.
Haftar said yesterday "No indications that the ongoing dialogue is the only way to resolve the crisis."